Strategy & Tactics
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An AI strategy is a set of choices about where artificial intelligence should change how an organization makes decisions, serves customers and gets work done, and about what it will deliberately not do. AI tactics are the methods that turn those choices into working systems: data pipelines, models, experiments, workflow changes, governance routines and the habits that keep them improving. Strategy answers where and why. Tactics answer how, in what order and how we will know it worked.
The problem this addresses is now well documented. Organizations buy tools and launch pilots, but value at the level of the whole business stays elusive. In McKinsey's 2026 global survey, nearly nine in ten respondents said their organizations regularly use AI in at least one business function, yet only 37% attributed any EBIT impact to it, and only about 6% qualified as "high performers" that credit AI with 5% or more of EBIT. Closing the gap between using AI and benefiting from it is the job of strategy and tactics.
The ideas on this page come from several traditions:
- Classic strategic planning: environmental scanning, trend analysis, scenario planning and portfolio management.
- The economics of AI: Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans and Avi Goldfarb (University of Toronto) describe AI as a sharp drop in the cost of prediction, which raises the value of its complements: data, judgment and the ability to act.
- General-purpose technology research: Erik Brynjolfsson (Stanford) and colleagues show why technologies like AI need large complementary investments before productivity rises (the "productivity J-curve").
- Practitioner playbooks: Andrew Ng's 2018 AI Transformation Playbook, and adoption frameworks from Microsoft and AWS.
- Field experiments: since 2023, randomized studies at companies such as Boston Consulting Group and Procter & Gamble have measured what generative AI actually does to productivity and quality.
The central mechanism is simple to state and hard to execute. AI makes some predictions, drafts and actions much cheaper. Value appears only when an organization redesigns a decision or workflow around that cheaper input, invests in what the change needs (data, skills, process changes, controls), and measures the result honestly. That is why the organizations reporting the most value redesign workflows and set growth goals, rather than layering AI onto unchanged processes.
How this differs from earlier "big data" and machine learning strategy:
- From projects to workflows. A churn model was a project. Generative AI and agents touch almost every knowledge task, so strategy is about redesigning work, not adding one model.
- From building models to choosing and evaluating them. Most organizations now start from pretrained foundation models and spend their effort on data, integration, evaluation and change management.
- From predicting to acting. Agentic systems call tools and take actions, which raises both the upside and the cost of mistakes.
- From annual plans to fast cycles. Model capability and price change every few months, so plans need regular review points.
Strategy decides where AI should change decisions and work, and which risks are acceptable; tactics turn those choices into data, models, experiments and routines that prove the value. Weighing opportunity and risk at every step raises the odds of the best outcomes.
The Mechanism
How an AI strategy becomes measurable results:
- Sense. Scan signals and trends inside and outside the organization: model capability and price changes, competitor moves, customer behavior, regulation, and your own usage and cost data. (Detailed in Strategy below.)
- Frame. Turn the main uncertainties into a few plausible scenarios, and set goals that hold up across them.
- Choose. Build a portfolio of use cases scored on value, feasibility, data readiness and risk. Decide whether to buy, build or partner for each one.
- Build foundations. Data architecture, platforms, security, evaluation tooling, governance and skills. Many use cases share these, which is why they belong to strategy rather than to any single project.
- Execute. Run pilots with success and stop criteria set in advance, then move the winners into production through a disciplined lifecycle (see Tactics).
- Redesign the work. Change roles, steps, handoffs and incentives around the new capability. Without this step, gains stay at the level of individual tasks.
- Measure and reallocate. Track business outcomes with experiments and monitoring, stop what does not work, and move people and budget to what does. Then return to step 1.
| Stage | Key question | Typical outputs | Common failure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sense | What is changing that matters to us? | Signal log, trend briefs, usage and cost telemetry | Chasing headlines; missing weak signals |
| Frame | Which futures should we be ready for? | Two to four scenarios, goals, guardrails | Betting everything on one scenario |
| Choose | Where will AI change a decision or workflow enough to matter? | Scored use-case portfolio; build, buy or partner decisions | Picking what demos well instead of what is valuable |
| Build foundations | What do many use cases need in common? | Data products, platform, evaluation harness, policies | Every team rebuilding the same plumbing |
| Execute | Does it work on real data with real users? | Pilot results against preset criteria; production system | "Pilot purgatory": no path to production |
| Redesign the work | Who does what differently now? | New process maps, roles, training | Bolting AI onto an unchanged process |
| Measure and reallocate | Did the business result change? | Experiment readouts, dashboards, portfolio decisions | Counting usage instead of outcomes |
Major components.
- People: an accountable executive owner, product owners for each workflow, data and ML engineers, domain experts, a governance function and change leaders.
- Process: stage gates, experiment design, incident response and a regular portfolio review.
- Technology: data platforms, access to models, evaluation and monitoring tools, and security controls.
- Governance: policies, risk classification, documentation and an inventory of AI systems. See AI Governance.
Dependencies and conditions. The chain only works when the data is available and trustworthy, someone owns the workflow being changed, the cost per completed task beats the alternative, and users trust the system enough to use it. Each condition can fail on its own, which is why so many promising pilots never reach production.
Where uncertainty remains. How much of the measured task-level gain shows up in company results; how reliable agents will become on long, multi-step tasks; how fast prices will keep falling; and how regulation will settle. Good strategies treat these as open variables and revisit them on a schedule.
Economics, Statistics and Scaling
AI strategy has its own "physics": a handful of quantitative relationships that explain why some plans pay off and others stall.
Prediction gets cheaper, so its complements gain value
Agrawal, Gans and Goldfarb argue that AI's core economic effect is to lower the cost of prediction, meaning the filling in of missing information. When an input gets cheaper, people use more of it, and the things used alongside it become more valuable. For AI those complements are proprietary data, human judgment about which outcomes matter, and the ability to act on a prediction. Generative AI extends the same logic to drafting text, code and images. The practical reading: look for decisions where a better prediction would change the action taken, and expect value to shift toward whoever owns the data, the judgment and the workflow.
Exposure is measured in tasks, not jobs
Researchers from OpenAI and the University of Pennsylvania estimated that about 80% of U.S. workers have at least 10% of their tasks exposed to large language models, and about 19% have at least half of their tasks exposed. Strategy therefore works at the level of tasks: list the tasks in a process, mark which ones AI can do, assist with or should not touch, and redesign the flow around that map.
The frontier is jagged
AI capability is uneven. It can excel at tasks that look hard and fail at tasks that look easy. In a preregistered experiment with 758 Boston Consulting Group consultants, those using GPT-4 on tasks inside the model's capability completed 12.2% more tasks, 25.1% faster, with more than 40% higher quality. On a task designed to fall outside that frontier, consultants using AI were 19 percentage points less likely to reach the correct answer than those working without it. Strategy has to map where each task sits relative to the frontier and re-map it as models change.
The productivity J-curve
General-purpose technologies such as electricity, computers and AI need large intangible investments: redesigned processes, new skills, data and organizational change. Brynjolfsson, Rock and Syverson show that measured productivity can dip before it rises, because these investments are costly and poorly captured in the statistics. AI programs should expect this pattern and judge early progress with leading indicators (adoption inside redesigned workflows, cycle time, quality) before lagging ones (profit).
Price curves and cost per task
Epoch AI reported in March 2025 that the price of reaching a fixed level of LLM performance has been falling by roughly 9x to 900x per year, depending on the task; for GPT-4-level performance on PhD-level science questions it fell about 40x per year. At the same time, reasoning models and agents consume far more tokens per task. The useful metric is therefore cost per completed task, including retries, tool calls and human review. In McKinsey's 2026 survey, one in five respondents said their organization limits AI use because of operating costs.
Expected value of a use case
A simple model keeps a portfolio honest:
Here the expected risk cost is the probability of a harmful failure multiplied by its impact. Two consequences follow. A modest use case with a high chance of success and low risk can beat an ambitious one. And shared foundations that raise P(success) for many use cases at once (data quality, evaluation tooling, governance) are worth more than any single business case shows.
Reliability compounds
If each step in an automated chain succeeds with probability p, a chain of n independent steps succeeds with probability pn. At 95% per step, a 10-step agent finishes correctly only about 60% of the time (0.9510 ≈ 0.60). This is why good tactics favor short, checkable workflows, validation between steps and human review at high-stakes points before granting agents long autonomous runs.
Amdahl's law for workflows
If AI speeds up a fraction f of a process by a factor s, the whole process speeds up by 1 / ((1 - f) + f/s). Making 30% of a process ten times faster yields only about a 1.37x overall speedup. Large gains require redesigning the whole workflow, not just accelerating one step.
Experiment math
To detect a difference δ in a metric with standard deviation σ (5% significance, 80% power), each group in an A/B test needs roughly n ≈ 16σ²/δ² observations. Halving the effect you want to detect quadruples the sample you need. Choose metrics that can move, run tests long enough, and do not stop early because the results look good.
Goodhart's law
When a measure becomes a target, it stops being a good measure. Usage counts, tokens processed and the number of pilots are easy to inflate. Pair efficiency metrics with quality, risk and customer measures.
| Principle | What it predicts | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| Cheaper prediction | Value shifts to data, judgment and action | Invest in proprietary data and decision ownership |
| Task exposure | Work changes task by task | Map tasks before redesigning roles |
| Jagged frontier | Big gains on some tasks, errors on others | Test each task; keep human review where AI is weak |
| J-curve | Results lag investment | Use leading indicators; fund complements |
| Price curves | Capability per dollar keeps rising | Re-evaluate models often; track cost per task |
| Reliability compounding | Long chains fail more often | Short workflows, checks, human approval |
| Amdahl's law | Speeding one step barely helps | Redesign the end-to-end process |
| Experiment math | Small effects need large samples | Size tests before running them |
Why This Matters
Value is real but concentrated. Most organizations use AI somewhere, yet few see enterprise-level financial impact. McKinsey's 2025 and 2026 surveys both found that only about 6% of respondents qualify as high performers. Those organizations are about three times as likely to have fundamentally redesigned workflows, they set growth and innovation goals alongside efficiency, and their senior leaders visibly own AI initiatives and measure impact. The difference is mostly strategy and execution, not access to models.
Task gains do not automatically become business gains. Field experiments show large improvements on well-matched tasks (see Recent Developments), while studies of whole labor markets find small effects so far. The J-curve and Amdahl's law explain much of the gap: gains need complementary investment and workflow redesign.
Engineering implications. Strategy shapes architecture: shared data products and evaluation tooling, model-neutral integration so you can switch providers, cost monitoring per task, and safety controls proportional to the risk of each use case.
Risk and accountability. Expect to be held responsible for what your AI says and does. In Moffatt v. Air Canada (2024), a British Columbia tribunal held the airline liable for its chatbot's wrong answer about bereavement fares. Autonomous agents raise the stakes: in July 2025, a coding agent on the Replit platform deleted a production database during an explicit code freeze. Governance belongs inside the business case, not after it. See Risk, Compliance and Regulation and AI Verification and Validation.
People and skills. Some AI tools help less-experienced workers most, while early-career employment in highly exposed occupations has fallen relative to other groups. Workforce planning, training and job redesign belong in the strategy from the start.
What would change if the optimistic case proves right. If agents become reliable on long tasks and costs keep falling, the bottleneck moves from technology to organizational redesign, data rights and governance capacity. What remains uncertain: whether today's task-level gains will appear in productivity statistics, which advantages will last as models become commodities (see Moat), and how quickly regulation will settle.
Recent Developments
Developments from roughly mid-2024 to October 2026 that matter for AI strategy and tactics. Each topic notes its evidence status so you can tell what is established: demonstrated findings come from randomized or quasi-experimental studies of specific settings; self-reported figures come from executive surveys; forecasts are analysts' informed hypotheses; preliminary results are early, small or contested; and the remaining open questions are listed at the end.
Enterprise adoption and returns
- What was measured. McKinsey's global executive surveys: 1,993 respondents in June and July 2025, and 1,719 respondents from 97 countries in May and June 2026.
- What they found. In 2025, 88% of organizations regularly used AI in at least one business function, up from 78% a year earlier, and 39% of respondents attributed some EBIT impact to AI, mostly under 5% of EBIT. In 2026, nearly nine in ten used AI, 44% reported scaling it across the enterprise (up from 38%), and 37% attributed any EBIT impact to it. High performers stayed at about 6%. Among organizations with more than $1 billion in revenue, 40% were scaling AI agents in at least one function, up from 27%, while smaller organizations held flat at 22%.
- New signals in 2026. One in five respondents said their organization limits AI use because of operating costs, yet 60% expected to increase AI investment over the next year. And 32% said their organization had skipped buying at least one software product because agentic coding tools let them build it in-house, a shift in the build-versus-buy line.
- Evidence status: self-reported. Good for tracking trends over time, but it does not establish causality, and companies measure EBIT effects in different ways.
The "GenAI Divide" claim
- What was claimed. A report from MIT's NANDA initiative (July and August 2025) said about 95% of organizations saw no measurable profit-and-loss return from generative AI, mainly because tools did not learn from feedback or fit daily workflows.
- Method. A review of more than 300 public AI initiatives, 52 structured interviews and 153 survey responses collected at industry conferences.
- Other findings. Workers at over 90% of companies reported regular use of personal AI tools for work, while only about 40% of companies had bought an official subscription: widespread "shadow AI".
- Evidence status: preliminary. The headline number traveled widely, but it rests on a small, conference-based sample and loose definitions of "return". Treat it as a sign of a real pilot-to-production problem, not as a precise failure rate.
Agentic AI: enthusiasm, standards and a reality check
- Cancellation risk. In June 2025, Gartner predicted that over 40% of agentic AI projects will be canceled by the end of 2027 because of escalating costs, unclear business value or inadequate risk controls. It also estimated that only about 130 of the thousands of vendors marketing "agentic AI" offer genuine agent capabilities, calling the rest "agent washing". Its advice: pursue agents where the value is clear, rethink workflows rather than bolting agents onto legacy systems, and measure cost, quality, speed and scale.
- Adoption. A Gartner webinar poll in January 2025 found 19% of organizations had made significant agentic AI investments and 42% conservative ones. By mid-2026, McKinsey found 40% of large enterprises scaling agents somewhere.
- Standards. The Linux Foundation formed the Agentic AI Foundation in December 2025 around Anthropic's Model Context Protocol (MCP), Block's goose framework and OpenAI's AGENTS.md convention; Google's Agent2Agent (A2A) protocol joined in August 2026. Shared standards lower integration costs and lock-in, which matters for build, buy and partner decisions.
- Practitioner consensus. OpenAI's and Anthropic's agent-building guides converge on the same tactics: start with the simplest workflow that works, prototype with the most capable model, then move routine steps to cheaper models where evaluations still pass, and keep humans in the loop for high-risk actions.
- Evidence status: forecast plus self-reported adoption. Gartner's cancellation rate is a prediction, in effect an informed hypothesis to test against your own portfolio, and the adoption figures come from polls and surveys. The standards developments are established facts.
Field experiments on productivity
- Customer support. Brynjolfsson, Li and Raymond studied the staggered rollout of a generative AI assistant to 5,179 customer-support agents at a software company (NBER working paper, 2023; published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics in 2025). Issues resolved per hour rose 14% on average and 34% for novice and low-skilled agents, with minimal impact on experienced, highly skilled agents. Customer sentiment improved and attrition fell. Limit: one company and one task family.
- Consulting. The "jagged frontier" study of 758 BCG consultants (Dell'Acqua and colleagues at Harvard Business School, Wharton, MIT and BCG; now published in Organization Science) showed large gains inside the frontier and a real accuracy penalty outside it. Limit: short, designed tasks rather than months of client work.
- Teamwork. The "Cybernetic Teammate" experiment with 776 Procter & Gamble professionals (NBER, 2025) found that individuals using AI performed about as well as two-person teams without it, that AI blurred the line between technical and commercial thinking, and that users reported more positive emotions. Limit: one-day innovation challenges.
- Software engineering. METR's 2025 randomized trial found experienced open-source developers took about 19% longer on real tasks when allowed to use early-2025 AI tools, even though they believed the tools had sped them up. In a February 2026 update, METR said it believes newer tools are raising productivity but can no longer measure the effect reliably: many developers would not work without AI, which undermined the control group, so METR is reworking its study design. Lesson: measure in your own setting rather than trusting perceived speed.
- Whole labor markets. Humlum and Vestergaard (University of Chicago Becker Friedman Institute, 2025) linked Danish surveys on AI chatbot use to administrative records and found no detectable effect on earnings or recorded hours two years after adoption, ruling out effects larger than about 2%.
- Evidence status: demonstrated for the settings studied. These results come from randomized or quasi-experimental designs, and the customer-support and consulting studies are now peer reviewed. Together they show large gains on well-matched tasks, smaller or negative effects on poorly matched ones, and little effect so far in labor-market statistics. Reading that gap as the J-curve at work is a proposed interpretation, not a demonstrated fact.
Workforce effects
- Using payroll data from the largest U.S. payroll provider, Brynjolfsson, Chandar and Chen (Stanford, August 2025) found that employment for 22 to 25 year olds in the most AI-exposed occupations fell about 13% relative to others, concentrated where AI tends to automate rather than augment work. More experienced workers in the same occupations held steady or grew.
- In McKinsey's 2026 survey, 39% of respondents expected AI to reduce their organization's headcount over the next year. Yet only 14% of respondents from AI-using organizations said AI had contributed to a headcount decline over the past year, less than half the 32% who had predicted reductions a year earlier.
- Evidence status: preliminary. The payroll study covers one data source over a short period, and the survey answers are self-reported. The direction matters for workforce planning even while the size and causes of the effect are debated.
Costs, investment and transparency
- Prices for fixed capability kept falling quickly (Epoch AI, 2025), while capability rose.
- Stanford's 2026 AI Index reported global corporate AI investment of roughly $580 billion in 2025, and a fall in the average Foundation Model Transparency Index score from 58 to 40, meaning major developers now disclose less about their models. Lower transparency makes vendor due diligence harder.
- Evidence status: measured. These are compiled market data, though investment totals depend on how each source defines "AI investment".
Governance and regulation
- European Union. The AI Act's bans on prohibited practices (since February 2025) and its obligations for general-purpose AI models (since August 2025) already apply. The Digital Omnibus, in force since 27 July 2026, moved high-risk obligations to 2 December 2027 for stand-alone systems (such as hiring, credit scoring and education) and 2 August 2028 for AI built into regulated products.
- United States federal government. OMB memorandum M-25-21 (April 2025) requires agencies to name a Chief AI Officer within 60 days, requires the larger agencies to convene AI governance boards within 90 days and publish AI strategies within 180 days, and sets risk-management practices for "high-impact" AI. It is a useful public template for corporate governance.
- Standards. The NIST AI Risk Management Framework and ISO/IEC 42001, a certifiable AI management-system standard, give organizations a shared vocabulary for risks and controls. See Ethics, Privacy and Law.
- Evidence status: established. These are adopted laws, policies and standards; how they will be enforced and audited is still taking shape.
Open questions
How to measure AI's contribution to company-level productivity; how reliable long-horizon agents can become; whether advantages from proprietary data and workflow redesign persist as models become commodities; and how regulators will treat autonomous agents. Several research efforts aim to narrow these gaps: METR is reworking its developer-productivity study, payroll-based studies like the Stanford team's continue to track employment, and the AI Index updates its investment, adoption and transparency data every year.
Strategy
- Policy ... Policy vs Plan ... Constitutional AI ... Trust Region Policy Optimization (TRPO) ... Policy Gradient (PG) ... Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO)
- Architectures for AI ... Generative AI Stack ... Enterprise Architecture (EA) ... Enterprise Portfolio Management (EPM) ... Architecture and Interior Design
- Exploring Enterprise AI - Insights, Use-Cases, and Best-Practices for Business Leaders | Emerj.com
Determine the Best Strategy
Determine Best Strategy: There are several steps an enterprise can take to use signals, analyze trends, itemize uncertainties, and develop future scenarios to better understand opportunities and threats within the organization:
- Identify and analyze signals, including associated risks. Signals are important to identify, but there is always a risk of overlooking or misinterpreting relevant signals. The enterprise should conduct a comprehensive environmental scan and consider the risk of missing critical signals or interpreting them incorrectly.
- Analyze trends. While trend analysis can provide valuable insights, there is a risk of assuming that past trends will continue in the future. The enterprise should consider the risks associated with potential changes in the market, customer behavior, or other factors that may impact the trends.
- Itemize uncertainties and associated risks. Itemizing uncertainties is crucial to developing effective contingency plans, but there is a risk of overlooking important uncertainties or underestimating their potential impact.
- The enterprise should consider the risks associated with potential uncertainties and develop contingency plans that are flexible enough to adapt to changing circumstances.
- AI signals worth tracking today: capability and price per task of leading models; your own usage, cost and quality telemetry, including unofficial "shadow AI" use; competitor and customer adoption; regulatory milestones such as EU AI Act deadlines; and the talent market.
- AI uncertainties worth naming: the pace of capability gains, agent reliability, cost curves, vendor stability and lock-in, data rights and copyright outcomes, and regulatory timing.
- Develop future scenarios; Goal. Scenario planning can help the enterprise anticipate potential outcomes, but there is a risk of becoming too focused on a specific scenario and failing to consider other possibilities. The enterprise should consider the risks associated with each scenario and develop strategies that are adaptable to a range of potential outcomes.
- A practical AI scenario grid crosses two uncertainties, for example how fast AI capability per dollar improves (steady or rapid) and how fast customers and regulators accept automation (cautious or permissive). Moves that pay off in all four quadrants, such as data foundations, evaluation tooling and workforce skills, are "no-regret" moves. Others become options to exercise when a signpost appears.
- Generative AI can help draft scenario narratives and stress-test assumptions, but deciding which futures matter stays with leaders.
- Plan and perform actions. Developing a plan of action is critical, but there is a risk of implementing actions that do not address the underlying issues or that have unintended consequences. The enterprise should consider the risks associated with each action and develop contingency plans in case the actions do not have the desired impact.
- Turn the plan into a use-case portfolio with stage gates and preset success and stop criteria (see the table below and Tactics).
By considering the risks associated with each step, the enterprise can develop a more comprehensive understanding of the opportunities and threats within the organization and increase the probability of best outcomes while minimizing the risks of negative consequences. This helps the enterprise to stay ahead of the competition, adapt to changes in the market, and achieve its strategic objectives while effectively managing risks.
Building the use-case portfolio
Score every candidate on the same criteria, then balance the portfolio across time horizons.
| Criterion | Questions to ask | Signs of a strong candidate |
|---|---|---|
| Value | Which decision or workflow changes? How large is the benefit in revenue, cost, risk, speed or quality? | A measured baseline; frequent, high-volume decisions |
| Feasibility | Is the task inside today's AI frontier? Does a quick test on real data work? | Pilot results on real cases, not demos |
| Data readiness | Is the data available, clean, permitted for this use and kept current? | Named data owner; documented access rights |
| Risk | What happens when it is wrong, and who is affected? What regulatory class applies? | Errors are visible and reversible; human review is possible |
| Strategic fit | Does it build a lasting advantage such as proprietary data, a better workflow or customer trust? | Hard for competitors to copy (see Moat) |
| Time to value | Can a pilot show results in weeks rather than quarters? | Small, testable first release |
Three horizons.
- Horizon 1: productivity in existing work. Assistants for drafting, search over internal knowledge, coding help. Fast to deploy, low differentiation.
- Horizon 2: redesigned core workflows. Claims, support, underwriting, procurement, software delivery. This is where high performers report most of their value.
- Horizon 3: new products and business models. AI-native services and agents that act for customers. Highest uncertainty, highest potential.
Build, buy or partner
- Buy when the use case is common and not a differentiator.
- Build or customize when proprietary data or a distinctive workflow is the source of advantage.
- Partner for scarce skills or to share risk on early bets.
- Agentic coding tools are moving this line: in McKinsey's 2026 survey, 32% of respondents had skipped buying at least one software product because they could build it in-house.
- Keep options open with model-neutral architecture and open standards such as MCP and A2A. For choosing approaches and models per problem, see AI Solver and Model Search.
Frameworks you can borrow
- Andrew Ng's AI Transformation Playbook (2018). Five steps: run pilot projects to gain momentum, build an in-house AI team, provide broad AI training, develop an AI strategy, and develop internal and external communications. Note the order: early wins come before the grand plan.
- AWS Cloud Adoption Framework for AI. Four iterative stages (Envision, Align, Launch, Scale). Work backward from business outcomes, and treat the data "flywheel" (better data, better predictions, better outcomes, more data) as the engine.
- Microsoft Cloud Adoption Framework, AI adoption. Leaders define outcomes, decision rights and how value will be measured; a central function such as an AI Center of Excellence owns organization-wide policy while business groups innovate within it; employees get approved tools plus training; and teams choose the option that meets requirements with the least operational responsibility.
- Gartner's agent guidance (2025). Use agents for decisions, automation for routine workflows and assistants for simple retrieval; measure cost, quality, speed and scale.
Videos: developing an AI strategy
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Strategy Example: Writing a Joke
Why a joke? Humor is a compact test of strategy versus tactics. The strategy is the choice of topic and angle that will surprise a particular audience; the tactics are repeatable steps that produce candidate punch lines. Comedy writer Joe Toplyn, a former head writer for late-night television, turned his method into Witscript, a system that has a language model follow those steps.
The Three-Part Joke Algorithm:
- Topic: This is the statement that the joke is based on. It usually involves a common or familiar situation, observation, or fact that the audience can relate to or understand. For example, a possible topic could be “I hate going to the dentist.”
- Angle: These are words that smoothly connect the topic to the punch line. They usually involve adding some details or context to the topic that make it more interesting or specific, but also hint at the direction of the punch line. For example, an angle using the topic above could be “I hate going to the dentist. Especially when he asks me questions while he’s working on my teeth.”
- Punch Line: These are words that result in a laugh. They usually involve revealing something unexpected or absurd about the topic or the angle that contradicts or exaggerates them. For example, a punch line using the angle above could be “I hate going to the dentist. Especially when he asks me questions while he’s working on my teeth. Like, ‘Do you floss regularly?’ or ‘How do you feel about polygamy?’”

Take these steps to write a three-part joke. The structure above describes the finished joke; this procedure is the order in which a writer, or a system like Witscript, builds it:
- Get a topic: This is the general subject or theme of the joke, such as politics, sports, animals, etc. It helps to narrow down the scope and context of the joke.
- Select two topic handles: These are two specific words or phrases related to the topic that can be used to create a contrast or a connection. For example, if the topic is politics, the topic handles could be "president" and "election".
- Generate associations of the two topic handles: These are words or ideas that come to mind when thinking of the topic handles. They can be positive, negative, neutral, or absurd. For example, some associations of "president" could be "power", "speech", "scandal", etc. Some associations of "election" could be "vote", "campaign", "fraud", etc.
- Create a punch line: This is the final sentence or phrase of the joke that delivers the surprise or twist. It usually involves combining or contrasting two associations of the topic handles in an unexpected or humorous way. For example, a possible punch line using the associations above could be "The president gave a speech about how he won the election by a landslide...of fraud allegations."
- Generate an angle between the topic and punch line: This is the intermediate sentence or phrase that sets up the punch line and connects it to the topic. It usually involves introducing one of the topic handles and one of its associations in a way that seems normal or logical at first, but leads to the punch line. For example, an angle using the punch line above could be "It's been a tough week for the president." This introduces the topic handle "president" and its association "scandal", but also creates a contrast with the punch line.
What the research shows
- Structure helps, but does not reach human level. Witscript 2 (presented at the International Conference on Computational Creativity, 2022) used GPT-3 to follow exactly these steps: pick two topic handles, list associations, combine them into a punch line, then write the angle. Crowd workers judged its responses to be jokes 46.2% of the time, versus 25.1% for plain GPT-3 and 70.3% for a professional human comedy writer.
- Professionals find LLMs useful for drafts, not for comedy. In a Google DeepMind study presented at ACM FAccT 2024, 20 professional comedians wrote material with ChatGPT and Google's Bard (running Gemini Pro). They valued help with first drafts and structure, but most felt the tools failed as creative partners: the output was bland and leaned on stale tropes, which one participant called "cruise ship comedy material from the 1950s, but a bit less racist." The average creativity-support score was 54.6 out of 100, which the authors rate as mediocre, and participants reported that safety filters blocked dark or edgy material and sometimes erased minority perspectives. The authors note that participants were recruited because they already used AI, which likely made their ratings more favorable than those of comedians overall.
- The strategy lesson. Breaking a creative task into explicit steps makes AI much more useful, but selection, taste and delivery (the judgment complement from the economics above) still sit with people. The same pattern applies to marketing copy, product ideas and strategy memos.
Tactics
- AI Solver ... Algorithms ... Administration ... Model Search ... Discriminative vs. Generative ... Train, Validate, and Test
- Data Science ... Governance ... Preprocessing ... Exploration ... Interoperability ... Master Data Management (MDM) ... Bias and Variances ... Benchmarks ... Datasets
- Analytics ... Visualization ... Graphical Tools ... Diagrams & Business Analysis ... Requirements ... Loop ... Bayes ... Network Pattern
- Development ... Notebooks ... AI Pair Programming ... Codeless ... Hugging Face ... AIOps/MLOps ... AIaaS/MLaaS
- Building Your Environment
- Conversational AI ... ChatGPT | OpenAI ... Bing/Copilot | Microsoft ... Gemini | Google ... Claude | Anthropic ... Perplexity ... You ... phind ... Ernie | Baidu
- Predictive Analysis 101 | Ravi Kalakota
- Machine Learning in Real Life | Rebecca Vickery - Towards Data Science
- Machine Learning Algorithms: Which One to Choose for Your Problem | Daniil Korbut
- Automating business processes, Gaining insight through data analysis, Engaging with customers and employees
- Neural Network Zoo | Fjodor Van Veen
- Insights | McKinsey&Company
- Outline_of_machine_learning | Wikpedia
- The 5 Rules Of Product-Driven Data Science | David Foster - Medium
- Think backwards
- Build a data pipeline before a model
- Deliver actions over accuracy
- Modularise and abstract
- Brand the solution
These methods can be employed to plan and execute actions identified in the last step of your AI strategy. Organizations can benefit greatly from implementing these methods and from using generative AI to plan and perform actions. Each method carries its own risk, so each is paired below with a way to manage it. Managed this way, AI initiatives are more likely to succeed and to deliver the strategic objectives they were chosen for.
Core tactical methods
- One example is predictive analytics, which can help organizations identify potential risks and outcomes associated with various actions. However, it's important to note that there is a risk of inaccurate predictions, especially when conditions shift away from the historical data (see Out-of-Distribution (OOD) Generalization). To mitigate this risk, track forecast error, report ranges rather than single numbers, and use generative AI to explore different outcomes and develop contingency plans in case predictions do not have the desired impact. See Predictive Analytics and Forecasting.
- Another method is simulation modeling, which can help organizations identify potential risks and opportunities. However, there is a risk of relying too heavily on simulated data and making decisions that do not reflect the real world. Generative AI can assist in simulation modeling by generating a wide range of inputs and scenarios, enabling organizations to explore different potential outcomes. Organizations should validate simulations with real-world data and develop contingency plans in case simulated results do not have the desired impact.
- Agile methodology is also a valuable tool for organizations, allowing for continuous monitoring and adjustment of actions based on feedback. However, there is a risk of losing sight of overall strategic objectives. Generative AI can assist in agile methodology by generating insights that inform the plan of action and help identify potential risks and opportunities. Tie each sprint goal to a portfolio objective so that fast iteration stays aligned with the strategy.
- A/B testing is another method that can help organizations identify which version of a product or service is more effective. However, there is a risk of making decisions based on incomplete or biased data, or on tests too small to detect real effects (see the experiment math in The Physics). Generative AI can produce more variants to test, but every variant still needs a fair, adequately sized comparison.
- Finally, continuous monitoring and evaluation can help organizations identify potential risks and opportunities in real time. However, there is a risk of relying too heavily on short-term trends and making decisions based on incomplete data. Generative AI can assist by summarizing signals and generating scenarios from historical and real-time data; pair it with statistical controls and clear escalation thresholds so that noise does not trigger action.
Tactics for generative AI and agents
- Evaluation-driven development. Before choosing a model or building an agent, write a test set of real cases with expected results. Use it to compare models, catch regressions and decide when to ship. See Evaluation, Measures and AI Verification and Validation.
- Start simple, add autonomy gradually. Use a single model call or a fixed workflow before an autonomous agent. Require human approval for irreversible actions, and give agents least-privilege credentials. The Replit incident above shows why instructions in a prompt are not the same as permissions.
- Route by difficulty. Prototype with the most capable model, then move routine steps to smaller, cheaper models wherever evaluations still pass.
- Manage cost per task. Monitor tokens, retries and human review time per completed task; set budgets; use caching and batch processing for work that can wait.
- Redesign the workflow, not just the step. Map the end-to-end process, then change roles, handoffs, training and incentives. Amdahl's law explains why speeding up one step rarely moves the business result.
- Channel shadow AI. Widespread unofficial use signals demand. Provide approved tools with data protections and training instead of relying on bans.
- Red-team and monitor. Test for prompt injection, data leakage and harmful outputs before launch, and log every model and tool call in production.
- Ground answers and allow "I don't know". For customer-facing assistants, answer from current, cited sources and route uncertain cases to people. The Air Canada ruling shows the cost of confident wrong answers.
From Kaggle to production
The table below contrasts a real business application with a Kaggle competition. Most of the work in production happens outside model building.
| Application | Kaggle Competition |
| Translate a business question into a data question | |
| Think about how the model is going to be consumed | |
| Validate assumptions and methods | |
| Consider how a machine learning model can connect to a (existing) tech stack | |
| Determine data sources | |
| Extract Data; SQL queries (sometimes across multiple databases), third-party systems, web scraping, API’s or data from partners | Download some data (probably one or several CSV files) |
| Transforming and cleaning data; removing erroneous data, outliers and handling missing values | Perhaps do a little cleaning, or chances are the data set may already be clean enough |
| Exploratory data analysis & feature extraction | |
| Feature engineering (vast range of variables) | Feature engineering (a finite number of variables) |
| Perform preprocessing such as converting categorical data into numerical data | Perform preprocessing such as converting categorical data into numerical data |
| Version models, Feature selection, Hyperparameter Tuning, and Web Service Endpoints | |
| Model selection; best model that can be integrated into the existing tech stack with the least amount of engineering | Model selection |
| Build the model | Build the model |
| Set up training and deployment pipelines | |
| Train the model | Train the model |
| Validate the model | Validate the model |
| Test the model | Test the model |
| Optimise the model until it is ‘good enough’ considering the business value; perform hyperparameter tuning and compare results | Run the data through a variety of suitable models until you find the best one; perform hyperparameter tuning and compare results |
| Make experiments reproducible | |
| If new tech stack… | |
| - Review prior art and available libraries, services, scafolding tools | |
| - Implement and test tech stack | |
| Deploy the model | |
| Monitor the model performance in production | |
| Set up monitoring alert systems | |
| Retrain when/if necessary | |
| Mature to automatically retrain and redeploy models |
What changes for generative AI and agents
The same lifecycle applies to applications built on foundation models, with new work at almost every step. See AIOps/MLOps for the operational side.
| Lifecycle step | Classic machine learning | Added for generative AI and agents |
|---|---|---|
| Translate the business question | Define the prediction target and metric | Define the task, acceptable outputs, failure modes and who reviews them |
| Data | Collect, clean and label training data | Curate knowledge sources, access permissions and evaluation cases; version prompts and context like code |
| Model selection | Compare algorithms on a validation set | Compare foundation models on your own evaluation set for quality, latency and cost per task; plan for model updates |
| Build | Feature engineering, training, tuning | Prompting, retrieval, tool integration (for example through MCP); fine-tune only when evaluations show a gap |
| Validate and test | Holdout and cross-validation | Code-based checks, LLM-as-a-judge calibrated against human ratings, red-teaming, safety and security tests |
| Deploy | Batch or real-time endpoints | Guardrails, human approval steps, least-privilege credentials for agents, fallbacks |
| Monitor | Data drift and accuracy | Quality sampling, incident tracking, token and tool costs, user feedback |
| Retrain or update | Retrain on new data | Re-run evaluations on every model, prompt or data-source change; keep versions so you can roll back |
Videos: building and choosing models
Several of these talks predate today's tooling. Theano development ended in 2017; Caffe's successor, Caffe2, merged into PyTorch in 2018; Chainer's developer, Preferred Networks, moved its research to PyTorch in December 2019; and Apache MXNet was retired to the Apache Attic in 2023. Today most work uses PyTorch, JAX or TensorFlow with Keras, usually starting from pretrained models (see Hugging Face). The fundamentals these talks teach (data quality, evaluation, bias and variance) still apply.
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Artificial Intelligence Center of Excellence (AI CoE)
- How to Set Up an AI Center of Excellence - Harvard Business Review
- How To Create an Enterprise 'AI Center of Excellence' | Pure AI
- Artificial Intelligence Center of Excellence (AICoE) - WordPress | UD
- Four Steps For Building An AI Center Of Excellence | Forbes
Establishing an AI Center of Excellence is a strategic move that can significantly enhance your organization's AI capabilities. Remember that AI adoption is an ongoing journey. Continuously monitor progress, iterate on your strategy, and adapt to changing technology and business landscapes. By following this plan, your organization can establish a robust AI CoE that drives innovation, efficiency, and value across the board.
Choosing an operating model
A CoE is one way to organize AI work. Most large organizations end up with a hybrid that changes as they mature.
| Model | How it works | Fits when | Watch out for |
|---|---|---|---|
| Centralized | One team owns platforms, talent and delivery | Early stages; scarce skills; high regulatory exposure | Becoming a bottleneck far from the business |
| Hub-and-spoke (federated) | A central hub sets standards, platforms and governance; business units build with embedded teams | Scaling across many functions; the most common pattern today | Unclear decision rights between hub and spokes |
| Decentralized | Each business unit runs its own AI | Very different businesses under one owner | Duplicated effort, inconsistent risk controls, shadow AI |
Microsoft's Cloud Adoption Framework recommends a version of the hub-and-spoke model: a central function such as an AI CoE owns organization-wide AI policy and responsible-AI requirements, while business groups innovate within those boundaries. Government shows the same pattern: under OMB memorandum M-25-21, U.S. federal agencies must appoint a Chief AI Officer and the larger agencies must run AI governance boards.
Here's an outline to guide your organization in adopting AI effectively and maximizing its value:
- Create the AI Vision:
- Define a clear and compelling vision for AI adoption within your organization. Understand how AI aligns with your business goals, mission, and long-term strategy.
- Engage key stakeholders, including executives, business leaders, and technical experts, to ensure buy-in and alignment.
- Name an accountable executive owner. Many organizations now appoint a Chief AI Officer; McKinsey's high performers are about three times as likely to have senior leaders who strongly own AI initiatives.
- Identify Use Cases:
- Conduct a thorough assessment of your organization’s processes, pain points, and opportunities.
- Identify specific use cases where AI can add value. Prioritize use cases based on their potential impact, feasibility, and alignment with strategic objectives, using the portfolio criteria in Strategy.
- Determine Ambition Level:
- Define the level of ambition for your AI initiatives. Consider factors such as budget, resources, and risk tolerance.
- Decide whether you want to start with small-scale pilots or aim for broader, organization-wide AI adoption.
- High performers aim for transformation and growth, not only efficiency, but they also invest in the foundations that ambition requires.
- Create a Data Architecture:
- Establish a robust data infrastructure to support AI initiatives.
- Ensure data quality, security, and accessibility. Consider data governance, privacy, and compliance requirements.
- Explore cloud-based solutions for scalability and flexibility.
- Treat key datasets and knowledge sources as products with owners, and add the access permissions and freshness rules that retrieval-based AI depends on.
- Manage External Partnerships:
- Collaborate with external partners, such as AI vendors, research institutions, and industry experts
- Leverage their expertise, tools, and technologies to accelerate AI development
- Establish clear communication channels and expectations
- Check vendor claims (Gartner's "agent washing" warning), data-use terms, model portability and support for open standards such as MCP and A2A.
- Identify AI Champions:
- Identify individuals within your organization who are passionate about AI and can drive its adoption.
- These champions can be from various departments: data science, IT, business units, etc.
- Empower them to lead AI initiatives, advocate for AI adoption, and share best practices.
- Use AI Technology:
- Explore AI tools, frameworks, and platforms
- Choose technologies that align with your organization’s needs and goals
- Start with a small-scale project or proof of concept
- Validate AI concepts and demonstrate feasibility
- Provide a shared platform: approved models, an evaluation harness, logging, guardrails and cost dashboards, so each team does not rebuild them.
- Share Success Stories:
- Communicate wins and achievements related to AI projects, perhaps by sharing them on a wiki.
- Showcase how AI has improved processes, efficiency, customer experiences, or revenue.
- Use success stories to build momentum and encourage broader adoption.
- Plan for Change Management:
- Communicate the AI roadmap to stakeholders.
- Address concerns, manage expectations, and ensure smooth implementation.
- Train broadly (step 3 of Ng's playbook), redesign roles rather than only adding tools, and publish what AI will and will not be used for.
- Govern and Measure:
- Run an AI governance board, keep an inventory of AI systems, and classify each use case by risk (for example, "high-impact" uses under OMB M-25-21 or "high-risk" systems under the EU AI Act).
- Report value and incidents together, so the portfolio is judged on both. See AI Governance.
Business Case
YouTube search... ...Google search
- How To Build A Strong Business Case For AI | Insights Team - Forbes
- Making a persuasive business case for bigger AI investment | Mike Miliard - Healthcare IT News HIMSS
- Building a business case for an AI or machine learning project using first principles, the 80/20 principle and more | Bhalchander Vishwanath - Ideas2IT
- Build the AI Business Case | Whit Andrews - Gartner
An AI business case answers four questions: what will change, what it is worth, what it costs in full, and how you will know. Recent evidence makes the last question the most important: many organizations use AI widely but cannot show an effect on profit, so a business case without a measurement plan is a hope, not a case.
Building the case
- Baseline. Measure today's cost, cycle time, error rate, revenue or customer satisfaction before anything changes.
- Value levers. Revenue growth, cost reduction, risk reduction, speed, quality, and employee or customer experience. High performers pursue growth and innovation, not only cost.
- Full cost. Build cost, run cost (model access, tokens, compute, licenses), integration, change management, training, governance and monitoring.
- Risk. Probability and impact of errors, regulatory exposure, vendor dependency and reputational harm. Include the expected risk cost in the numbers.
- Measurement plan. Leading indicators (adoption in the redesigned workflow, cycle time, quality scores) and lagging ones (EBIT, revenue), with experiment designs and decision dates.
- Stop rules. Preset criteria for stopping, pivoting or scaling, so pilots do not linger.
| Measure | Formula or definition | Use it to |
|---|---|---|
| ROI | (benefit - cost) ÷ cost | Compare projects of different sizes |
| Payback period | Months until cumulative benefit exceeds cumulative cost | Judge cash and timing risk |
| Net present value | Discounted benefits minus discounted costs | Compare long-lived investments |
| Cost per completed task | Total run cost ÷ tasks completed to standard, including retries and human review | Compare AI with the current process and between models |
| Expected value | See The Physics | Rank a portfolio that includes risk |
Lessons from recent cases
- Count quality, not just volume. Klarna reported in February 2024 that its AI assistant handled about 2.3 million customer conversations in its first month, work it equated to about 700 full-time agents. In 2025 its CEO said the push had lowered service quality, and the company began hiring human agents again. A business case should track customer outcomes and keep a human path for complex cases.
- Evaluate before you scale. Morgan Stanley built evaluations of its advisor assistant before rolling it out; more than 98% of advisor teams now use it. Adoption inside the target workflow is a strong leading indicator.
- Price in liability. The Air Canada ruling shows that wrong answers from a customer-facing assistant are the company's responsibility.
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Business Strategy/Consulting
Youtube search... ...Google search
- Strategy & Tactics ... Project Management ... Best Practices ... Checklists ... Project Check-in ... Evaluation ... Measures
- Analytics ... Visualization ... Graphical Tools ... Diagrams & Business Analysis ... Requirements ... Loop ... Bayes ... Network Pattern
- Architectures for AI ... Enterprise Architecture (EA) ... Enterprise Portfolio Management (EPM) ... Architecture and Interior Design
- Generative AI ... Conversational AI ... OpenAI's ChatGPT ... Perplexity ... Microsoft's Bing ... You ...Google's Bard ... Baidu's Ernie
- Note: Google renamed Bard to Gemini in February 2024, and Microsoft's Bing Chat became Copilot (Bing/Copilot).
- Video/Image ... Vision ... Enhancement ... Fake ... Reconstruction ... Colorize ... Occlusions ... Predict image ... Image/Video Transfer Learning
- Client Engagement .. Afiniti
- AI May Soon Replace Even the Most Elite Consultants | Barry Libert and Megan Beck - Harvard Business Review
- Can Artificial Intelligence Generate Corporate Strategy? | Daniel Shapiro - Forbes
- Rainbird enables enterprises to build systems with human-like decision making abilities
- AI Consulting: In-depth Guide with Top AI Consultants of 2020 | AI Multiple
- Crafting an AI strategy for government leaders | Deloitte Insights
What the evidence says about AI in strategy work
The 2017 question of whether AI will replace elite consultants now has experimental evidence behind it. The best-known experiment on AI in consulting work, the "jagged frontier" study of 758 BCG consultants, found big gains on idea generation, writing and analysis inside the model's capability, and a drop in accuracy on a business-analysis task outside it. The "Cybernetic Teammate" experiment at Procter & Gamble found that an individual working with AI can match a two-person team on idea generation. Together these suggest a practical division of labor:
- AI is strong at scanning and summarizing signals, drafting scenarios and options, generating alternatives, challenging assumptions (a "red team" role), and turning data into first-pass analysis.
- People remain essential for deciding what matters, judging situations unlike anything in the training data, weighing values and trade-offs, and being accountable for the decision.
- So, can AI generate corporate strategy? Today's evidence supports AI as a co-pilot for strategy work, not its author. Strategy teams that use it well treat its output as drafts to test, verify facts against sources, and keep the final choice and its rationale with people.
Note that the 2020 consulting guide above predates generative AI; most firms have since built internal AI tools and AI practices.
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Sources and Further Viewing
Additional Viewing
Andrej Karpathy: Software Is Changing (Again) (Y Combinator AI Startup School, June 2025, 39 minutes). Karpathy describes "Software 3.0", where natural language becomes a programming interface, and argues that the most useful near-term products are "partial autonomy" apps with an autonomy slider that keeps people in a fast generate-and-verify loop. It is a grounded counterweight to agent hype and a useful frame for the "start simple, add autonomy gradually" tactic on this page. Watch on YouTube
Andrew Ng: Opportunities in AI (Stanford Graduate School of Business event, July 2023, over 30 minutes). Ng frames AI as a general-purpose technology like electricity, contrasts supervised learning (most of the value created so far) with generative AI (growing fastest), maps where opportunities sit across the AI stack, and explains how his venture studio validates ideas before building. It pairs well with his AI Transformation Playbook cited on this page. Watch on YouTube
Erik Brynjolfsson: The AI Awakening, introductory lecture (Stanford ECON295/CS323, Stanford Online, August 2024, 1 hour 12 minutes). Brynjolfsson, director of the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, opens his course on how AI is reshaping the economy and society; the Lab features this lecture as the course introduction. His research is behind several ideas on this page, including the productivity J-curve and the customer-support field study, so the lecture is good background for The Physics and Recent Developments. Watch on YouTube
Reid Hoffman: Business of AI (Stanford ECON295/CS323, Stanford Online, September 2024, 1 hour 18 minutes). LinkedIn co-founder and investor Reid Hoffman joins Brynjolfsson's course for a question-and-answer session about building and running businesses with AI. Watch it alongside the Business Case section for a founder and investor perspective on where AI creates value. Watch on YouTube
Key Sources
Adoption, value and strategy
- The state of AI in 2026: On the road to ROI | McKinsey & Company Published August 2026; survey of 1,719 respondents in 97 countries covering adoption, EBIT impact, high performers, agents, AI operating costs and build-versus-buy shifts.
- The state of AI in 2025: Agents, innovation, and transformation | McKinsey & Company Published November 2025; survey of 1,993 respondents that defines AI high performers and what they do differently.
- MIT Report Finds Most AI Business Investments Fail, Reveals "GenAI Divide" | Virtualization Review Summary of MIT NANDA's 2025 report, its methods and its shadow-AI findings.
- Gartner Predicts Over 40% of Agentic AI Projects Will Be Canceled by End of 2027 | Gartner June 2025 prediction, "agent washing" estimate and recommendations.
- AI Index Report 2026 | Stanford HAI Annual data on AI investment, capability, transparency, adoption and policy.
- AI Transformation Playbook | Andrew Ng, Landing AI The five-step playbook for leading a company through AI adoption (2018).
- AI adoption | Microsoft Cloud Adoption Framework Strategy, planning, readiness and governance guidance, including the CoE model and agents.
- Your AI transformation journey | AWS Cloud Adoption Framework for AI The Envision, Align, Launch and Scale cycle and the data flywheel.
Economics and evidence
- Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence | Agrawal, Gans and Goldfarb, Rotman School of Management Announcement of the book that frames AI as cheaper prediction.
- The Productivity J-Curve: How Intangibles Complement General Purpose Technologies | Brynjolfsson, Rock and Syverson, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics Why measured productivity can dip before AI investments pay off.
- GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models | Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin and Rock Task-level exposure estimates for the U.S. workforce.
- LLM inference price trends | Epoch AI March 2025 analysis of falling prices for fixed levels of capability.
- Generative AI at Work | Brynjolfsson, Li and Raymond, NBER Field study of 5,179 customer-support agents; published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics in 2025.
- Navigating the Jagged Technological Frontier | Dell'Acqua et al., Organization Science Experiment with 758 BCG consultants showing gains inside and errors outside AI's capability frontier.
- The Cybernetic Teammate: A Field Experiment on Generative AI Reshaping Teamwork and Expertise | Dell'Acqua et al., NBER Experiment with 776 Procter & Gamble professionals.
- Measuring the Impact of Early-2025 AI on Experienced Open-Source Developer Productivity | METR Randomized trial finding a 19% slowdown, with perceived speedup.
- METR's developer productivity research: 2026 update | Rob Bowley Summary of METR's February 2026 update and its measurement problems.
- Large Language Models, Small Labor Market Effects | Humlum and Vestergaard, Becker Friedman Institute Danish administrative data showing no detectable earnings or hours effects.
- Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence | Brynjolfsson, Chandar and Chen, Stanford SIEPR Payroll evidence on early-career employment in AI-exposed occupations.
Agents and delivery
- A practical guide to building agents | OpenAI Model selection, orchestration patterns and guardrails for agents.
- Building effective agents | Anthropic Workflows versus agents, and why simple, composable patterns work best.
- Agentic AI Foundation | Linux Foundation Hosts MCP, AGENTS.md, goose, agentgateway and, since August 2026, A2A.
Governance and regulation
- EU Digital Omnibus on AI Enters into Force | Hunton Andrews Kurth The amendment's entry into force on 27 July 2026 and the new application dates for high-risk AI systems (2 December 2027 and 2 August 2028).
- M-25-21: Accelerating Federal Use of AI through Innovation, Governance, and Public Trust | U.S. Office of Management and Budget Chief AI Officers, governance boards, AI strategies and high-impact AI practices.
- AI Risk Management Framework | NIST Voluntary framework for governing, mapping, measuring and managing AI risk.
- ISO/IEC 42001:2023 Artificial intelligence management system | ISO Certifiable standard for AI management systems.
Cases
- Moffatt v. Air Canada: A Misrepresentation by an AI Chatbot | McCarthy Tétrault The 2024 tribunal ruling on chatbot liability.
- AI Agent Wipes Production Database | eWeek The July 2025 Replit agent incident.
- Klarna Is Hiring Customer Service Agents After AI Couldn't Cut It | Entrepreneur Klarna's 2025 reversal after its AI-first customer service push.
- Morgan Stanley | OpenAI How evaluations preceded the rollout of Morgan Stanley's advisor assistant.
Humor research
- Witscript 2: A System for Generating Improvised Jokes Without Wordplay | Joe Toplyn, ICCC 2022 The joke-writing steps automated with GPT-3, with human ratings.
- A Robot Walks into a Bar: Can Language Models Serve as Creativity Support Tools for Comedy? | Mirowski, Love, Mathewson and Mohamed, Google DeepMind FAccT 2024 study with 20 professional comedians.
Tooling history
- Preferred Networks Migrates its Deep Learning Research Platform to PyTorch | Preferred Networks The December 2019 announcement that ended active Chainer development.
- Apache MXNet | Apache Attic Record of MXNet's retirement.