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Creating a Sports Betting Model 101: Basics of Testing & Backtesting
Sports Betting Truth - Before you can actually deploy a model for betting purposes you need to test it to make sure it works. You can test it in real time as the season goes on, day by day, but this is a slow process and by the time you build up a large enough sample, the season could already be over. Or you can backtest. Backtesting is quicker and allows you to test against a much larger set of games in a much shorter time, but there are some drawbacks as well, most notably lines being set at what was known about the two teams at the time, instead of what we know now. This creates false positives and inflated profit margins. However, you can still use this approach to test different models to see which one performs best. You can also use it to combine models and see which approaches have synergy together. The best way to do it would be to have a set of data that is split out day by day and you backtest against what the stats were at the time the game was played. However this would be more trouble than it is worth due to the massive amount of data and effort required to run such a backtest system.
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A Modern Love Story: Machine Learning & The Global Sports Betting Industry | ICED(AI)
Developments in Artificial Intelligence, particularly those within the subfield of Machine Learning, are revolutionizing virtually every industry on the planet. The global sports betting industry, especially with the United States' repeal of PASPA in 2018, is ripe for disruption. Exponential increases in the ability to collect, distribute, and analyze sports data have led to an influx of top engineers entering the space. This presentation will focus on some of the principal ways in which Machine Learning is revolutionizing the industry, ranging from oddsmaking and risk management to fraud detection and responsible gaming implementations. It will also offer a guide to the economics of the business side of the industry and discuss relevant current topics in the tech space, such as adversarial machine learning. ABOUT THE SPEAKER Lloyd Danzig is the Chairman & Founder of the International Consortium for the Ethical Development of Artificial Intelligence, a non-profit dedicated to ensuring that rapid developments in A.I. are made with a keen eye toward the long-term interests of humanity. He is also the Founder & CEO of Sharp Alpha Advisors, a sports betting business and investment consultancy with a focus on companies deploying cutting-edge tech. He has previously managed institutional portfolios for BlackRock, data science initiatives for Samsung, and Machine Learning engines for sportsbook operators, along with a lifelong passion for entrepreneurship and innovation. He has been privileged to be featured as a guest speaker on the evolving role of Machine Learning in gaming at numerous prestigious universities including Stanford University, Columbia University, and The Wharton School of Business, in addition to private sector conferences including QConAI, Betting on Sports, The AI Summit, MathSport International, The All American Sports Betting Summit, Sport & Society, and IAGR 2019.
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Sport
Horse Racing
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Gambling AI Wins BIG Money - The Know
It's Skynet meets Vegas! An AI just turned a $20 bet into $11,000 this weekend, thanks to using our human intelligence against us for big winnings. Hopefully it'll share, but probably not. Linkdump: http://bit.ly/1T68zpo Written By: Eddy Rivas Hosted By: Ashely Jenkins & Meg Turney
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Betting system prediction using Deep Learning
RIS AI
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Predicting Horse Race Winners Using Advanced Statistical Methods
Conditional Logistic Regression with Frailty applied to predicting horse race winners in Hong Kong. http://www.helios.ai Since first proposed by Bill Benter in 1994, the Conditional Logistic Regression has been an extremely popular tool for estimating the probability of horses winning a race. I propose a new prediction process that is composed of two innovations to the common CLR model and a unique goal for parameter tuning . First, I modify the likelihood function to include a "frailty" parameter borrowed from epidemiological use of the Cox Proportional Hazards model. Secondly, I use a LASSO penalty on the likelihood, where profit is the target to be maximized. (As opposed to the much more common goal of maximizing likelihood.) Finally, I implemented a Cyclical Coordinate Descent algorithm to fit the model in high-speed parallelized code that runs on a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU), allowing me to rapidly test many tuning parameter settings. Historical data from 3681 races in Hong Kong were collected and a 10-fold cross validation was used to find the optimal outcome. Simulated betting on a hold out set of 20% of races yielded a return on investment of 36.73%.
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Basketball
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Predicting sports winners using data analytics with Pandas and scikit-learn by Robert Layton
The Pandas and scikit-learn packages combine together to produce a powerful toolkit for data analytics. In this talk, we will be using them together to analyse the outcome of NBA games, trying to predict the winner of a match. There is plenty of data out there to allow us to create good predictions – the key is getting it in the right format and building the right model. In this talk we will go through importing data from the net, cleaning it up, creating new features, and building a predictive model. We then evaluate how well we did, using recent NBA data. The model we use will be a decision tree ensemble called a random forest. PyCon Australia is the national conference for users of the Python Programming Language. In 2015, we're heading to Brisbane to bring together students, enthusiasts, and professionals with a love of Python from around Australia, and all around the World. July 31-August 4, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
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How to win in NBA betting - Sports betting tips, powered by Artificial Intelligence
Here comes our introduction video for #NBA betting. Why did we start publishing NBA betting predictions? How should you read and use our predictions? What is our accuracy so far? What will be the next thing? We aim to help people being interested in sports betting to develop consistent and strong betting strategies when betting on sports competitions. We only ask machines when making predictions. No one can guarantee the result of a match before it is played. We at Wise Prediction work to maximize the accuracy of our algorithms but it is a fact that it is impossible to reach to 100% accuracy and we do not guarantee that any of predictions will always hold. Wise Prediction shares football ( soccer ) and NBA match result predictions and betting tips by using advanced techniques of Artificial Intelligence. Beside (pretty much) daily NBA predictions, WisePrediction.com publishes weekly predictions for 150+ matches from 20 different football leagues in 11 countries in Europe. Our models help our members to identify matches that are comparably safer to bet on and the ones that are riskier and thereby should be avoided to bet on. Making sensible betting decisions require long analysis and it is just impractical to do everything manually on 100+ matches from 20 different leagues in a consistent manner. We have automated this process at Wise Prediction and share our predictions based on the same approach which is consistent in all predictions that is done. All betting tips shared at Wise Prediction are generated based on our AI powered algorithms and there is no human interaction involved in decision making. There is no guarantee that our predictions will always hold because sports competitions are always subject to end with unexpected results. If anyone bets on sports competitions by using our predictions, s/he does it at his/her own risk.
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Using Machine Learning for Predicting NFL Games | Data Dialogs 2016
Presented by Amit Bhattacharyya You are a HUGE football fan. Every week you pick winners in an NFL pick-em' league. Somehow, all that fan experience doesn't translate into consistently winning your league. Perhaps you need a more systematic approach that takes some of the emotion out of it. Where to start? Betting spreads provide a consistent and robust mechanism for encapsulating the variables and predicting outcomes of NFL games. In a weekly confidence pool, spreads also perform very well as opposed to intuition-based guessing and "knowledge" from years of being a fan. Can we do better? In this talk, we will discuss an approach to use machine learning algorithms to make improvements on the spread method of ranking winners on a weekly basis as an exercise in winning your friendly neighborhood confidence pool.
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Machine Learning and (wait for it!) --- Fantasy Football!!
You read that title right people! The time has come for Machine Learning and Fantasy Football! Our resident Data Scientist, Laura Edell is back and this time she shows us how she dominates her Fantasy Football league by using Microsoft Azure Machine Learning. Short on time? Just click on any of the below links and jump to that section of the video: 0:01:40 – So, let’s get straight to the point --- you’ve been using a “Deep Learning, A.I. powered” Fantasy Football model to dominate your Fantasy Football league, year-over-year? 0:02:00 – Ok --- please explain. And go slow so we can make lots of notes… 0:07:52 – DEMO: Exclusive!! Creating a Fantasy Football “Deep Learning, A.I.” model Additional Resources: http://www.microsoft.com/ai
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Data Science Final Project: NFL Fantasy Predictor
Darshil Patel Regression Model for fantasy football
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Using Machine Learning to make Fantasy Football Projections
Louis Rosenblum
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Soccer
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Predicting the Winning Team with Machine Learning
Creatives#Siraj Raval Can we predict the outcome of a football game given a dataset of past games? That's the question that we'll answer in this episode by using the scikit-learn machine learning library as our predictive tool. Code for this video
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Artificial Intelligence Football Analysis or machine learning football
Artificial Intelligence Football Analysis or machine learning football
Most beautiful watch ever ! with Speaker, Heart Rate, GPS, NFC, and Smartphone Notifications: http://amzn.to/2JDSSGX To make sense of data, OLOCIP brings together the most advanced modeling strategies, capable of transforming temporal-space data into transparent statistical models, with a thorough insight to the differential factors of the sport. Artificial Intelligence (AI ) enables a complete and secure analysis based on a more efficient capability that can register, retain and discern the events captured. In this way, Olocip transparent IA models, not only detect and identify each of the weak points, but also provides instructions in order to maximize the achievement of marked objectives. Combining scientific rigor, technological innovation and best in class soccer expertise, This is how OLOCIP creates support applications that facilitate and optimize decision making, acting from the descriptive dimension to predictive and prescriptive dimension that optimize the management of soccer clubs and related companies.
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Hockey
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Sports Betting with Reinforcement Learning
Creatives#Siraj Raval - Sports betting is a popular past-time for many and a great use-case for an important concept known as dynamic programming that I’ll introduce in this video. We'll go over concepts like value iteration, the Markov Decision Process (MDP), and the bellman optimality principle, all to help create a system that will help US optimally bet on the winning hockey team in order to maximize profits. Code, animations, theory, and yours truly. Enjoy! Code for this video
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Tennis
Poker
Imperfect Information
Excel - Sports Prediction
