Difference between revisions of "Forecasting"
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<b>Time Series Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Network and Vector Autoregressive Model: When and How | <b>Time Series Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Network and Vector Autoregressive Model: When and How | ||
| − | </b><br> [[Privacy#General Data Protection Regulations (GDPR)|The General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR)]], which came into effect on May 25, 2018, establishes strict guidelines for managing personal and sensitive data, backed by stiff penalties. [[Privacy#General Data Protection Regulations (GDPR)|GDPR]]'s requirements have forced some companies to shut down services and others to flee the EU market altogether. [[Privacy#General Data Protection Regulations (GDPR)|GDPR]]'s goal to give consumers control over their data and, thus, increase consumer trust in the digital ecosystem is laudable. However, there is a growing feeling that [[Privacy#General Data Protection Regulations (GDPR)|GDPR]] has dampened innovation in machine learning & AI applied to personal and/or sensitive data. After all, ML & AI are hungry for rich, detailed data and sanitizing data to improve [[privacy]] typically involves redacting or fuzzing inputs, which multiple studies have shown can seriously affect model quality and predictive power. While this is technically true for some [[privacy]]-safe modeling techniques, it's not true in general. The root cause of the problem is two-fold. First, most data scientists have never learned how to produce great models with great [[privacy]]. Second, most companies lack the systems to make [[privacy]]-safe machine learning & AI easy. This talk will challenge the implicit assumption that more [[privacy]] means worse predictions. Using practical examples from production environments involving personal and sensitive data, the speakers will introduce a wide range of techniques--from simple hashing to advanced embeddings--for high-accuracy, [[privacy]]-safe model development. Key topics include pseudonymous ID generation, semantic scrubbing, structure-preserving data fuzzing, task-specific vs. task-independent sanitation and ensuring downstream [[privacy]] in multi-party collaborations. Special attention will be given to Spark-based production environments. Talk by Jeffrey Yau. | + | </b><br> [[Privacy#General Data Protection Regulations (GDPR)|The General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR)]], which came into effect on May 25, 2018, establishes strict guidelines for managing personal and sensitive data, backed by stiff penalties. [[Privacy#General Data Protection Regulations (GDPR)|GDPR]]'s requirements have forced some companies to shut down services and others to flee the EU market altogether. [[Privacy#General Data Protection Regulations (GDPR)|GDPR]]'s goal to give consumers control over their data and, thus, increase consumer trust in the digital ecosystem is laudable. However, there is a growing feeling that [[Privacy#General Data Protection Regulations (GDPR)|GDPR]] has dampened innovation in machine learning & AI applied to personal and/or sensitive data. After all, ML & AI are hungry for rich, detailed data and sanitizing data to improve [[privacy]] typically involves redacting or fuzzing inputs, which multiple studies have shown can seriously affect model quality and predictive power. While this is technically true for some [[privacy]]-safe modeling techniques, it's not true in general. The root cause of the problem is two-fold. First, most data scientists have never learned how to produce great models with great [[privacy]]. Second, most companies lack the systems to make [[privacy]]-safe machine learning & AI easy. This talk will challenge the implicit assumption that more [[privacy]] means worse predictions. Using practical examples from production environments involving personal and sensitive data, the speakers will introduce a wide range of techniques--from simple hashing to advanced embeddings--for high-accuracy, [[privacy]]-safe model [[development]]. Key topics include pseudonymous ID generation, semantic scrubbing, structure-preserving data fuzzing, task-specific vs. task-independent sanitation and ensuring downstream [[privacy]] in multi-party collaborations. Special attention will be given to Spark-based production environments. Talk by Jeffrey Yau. |
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<b>Joe Jevnik - A Worked Example of Using Neural Networks for Time Series Prediction | <b>Joe Jevnik - A Worked Example of Using Neural Networks for Time Series Prediction | ||
| − | </b><br>PyData New York City 2017 Slides: https://github.com/llllllllll/osu-talk Most neural network examples and tutorials use fake data or present poorly performing models. In this talk, we will walk through the process of implementing a real model, starting from the beginning with data collection and cleaning. We will cover topics like feature selection, window normalization, and feature scaling. We will also present development tips for testing and deploying models. | + | </b><br>PyData New York City 2017 Slides: https://github.com/llllllllll/osu-talk Most neural network examples and tutorials use fake data or present poorly performing models. In this talk, we will walk through the process of implementing a real model, starting from the beginning with data collection and cleaning. We will cover topics like feature selection, window normalization, and feature scaling. We will also present [[development]] tips for testing and deploying models. |
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Revision as of 12:54, 17 March 2023
...Google search Youtube search...
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Contents
- 1 Qualitative Forecasting
- 2 Quantitative Forecasting
- 2.1 Time Series Forecasting
- 2.1.1 Time Series AutoML
- 2.1.2 Time Series Forecasting - Statistical
- 2.1.2.1 Autoregression (AR)
- 2.1.2.2 Moving Average (MA)
- 2.1.2.3 Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)
- 2.1.2.4 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)
- 2.1.2.5 Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average (SARIMA)
- 2.1.2.6 Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors (SARIMAX)
- 2.1.2.7 Vector Autoregression (VAR)
- 2.1.2.8 Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA)
- 2.1.2.9 Vector Autoregression Moving-Average (VARMA)
- 2.1.2.10 Vector Autoregression Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors (VARMAX)
- 2.1.3 Smoothing
- 2.1.4 Time Series Forecasting - Deep Learning
- 2.1 Time Series Forecasting
- 3 Demand Forecasting
Qualitative Forecasting
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Delphi
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Quantitative Forecasting
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Time Series Forecasting
- How to Tune LSTM Hyperparameters with Keras for Time Series Forecasting | Matt Dancho
- How (not) to use Machine Learning for time series forecasting: Avoiding the pitfalls | Vegard Flovik KDnuggeets
- How (not) to use Machine Learning for time series forecasting: Avoiding the pitfalls | Vegard Flovik - KDnuggets
- Time Series Prediction - 8 Techniques | Siraj Raval
- Amazon Forecast | AWS
- 7 Ways Time-Series Forecasting Differs from Machine Learning | Roman Josue de las Heras Torres
- Finding Patterns and Outcomes in Time Series Data - Hands-On with Python | ViralML.com
- Applying Statistical Modeling and Machine Learning to Perform Time-Series Forecasting | Tamara Louie
- Stationarity in time series analysis | Shay Palachy - Towards Data Science
- [http://www.youtube.com/
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Time Series AutoML
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Time Series Forecasting - Statistical
Classical time series forecasting methods may be focused on linear relationships, nevertheless, they are sophisticated and perform well on a wide range of problems, assuming that your data is suitably prepared and the method is well configured. 11 Classical Time Series Forecasting Methods in Python (Cheat Sheet) | Jason Brownlee - Machine Learning Mastery
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Autoregression (AR)
YouTube search... ...Google search
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Moving Average (MA)
YouTube search... ...Google search
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Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)
YouTube search... ...Google search
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Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)
YouTube search... ...Google search
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Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average (SARIMA)
YouTube search... ...Google search
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Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors (SARIMAX)
YouTube search... ...Google search
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Vector Autoregression (VAR)
YouTube search... ...Google search
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Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA)
YouTube search... ...Google search
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Vector Autoregression Moving-Average (VARMA)
YouTube search... ...Google search
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Vector Autoregression Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors (VARMAX)
YouTube search... ...Google search
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Smoothing
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Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES)
YouTube search... ...Google search
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Holt's Exponential Smoothing
YouTube search... ...Google search
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Winter's (Holt-Winter's) Exponential Smoothing (HWES)
YouTube search... ...Google search
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Time Series Forecasting - Deep Learning
Applying deep learning methods like Multilayer Neural Networks and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Recurrent Neural Network models to time series forecasting problems.| Jason Brownlee - Machine Learning Mastery
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Demand Forecasting
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