Difference between revisions of "Forecasting"
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| − | <b> | + | <b>How To... Forecast Using Exponential Smoothing in Excel 2013 |
| − | </b><br> | + | </b><br>Learn how to use exponential smoothing to forecast future needs in [[Microsoft]] Excel 2013 for Time Series Analysis. Exponential Smoothing forecasts demand in the next time period by taking into account the actual demand in the current period and the forecasted demand for the current time period. Please visit (and subscribe to) my YouTube Channel to view methods of forecasting such as the Simple Moving Average and Weighted Moving Average methods. |
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<youtube>RuomXisQKWc</youtube> | <youtube>RuomXisQKWc</youtube> | ||
| − | <b> | + | <b>Exponential Smoothing Forecast [[Python]] and [[Microsoft]] Power BI |
| − | </b><br> | + | </b><br>Learn how to incorporate triple exponential smoothing forecast models in Power BI with the help of [[Python]]. Train and test your forecast with these easy to follow steps. |
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<youtube>Qd5pLB1rSVg</youtube> | <youtube>Qd5pLB1rSVg</youtube> | ||
| − | <b> | + | <b>[[Python]] Tutorial. Exponential Smoothing Methods |
| − | </b><br> | + | </b><br>This tutorial has an educational and informational purpose and doesn’t constitute any type of forecasting, business, trading or investment advice. All content, including code and data, is presented with no guarantee of exactness or completeness. Investment Risk and Uncertainty. All tutorial content and conclusions are based on hypothetical historical analysis and not real trading or investing with the possibility of future outliers not previously observed within these time series. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Investment risk and uncertainty can possibly lead to its total loss for unleveraged products and even larger for leveraged ones. |
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<youtube>wQaUEmPtsjI</youtube> | <youtube>wQaUEmPtsjI</youtube> | ||
| − | <b> | + | <b>[[Python]] Tutorial. Double Exponential Smoothing Methods |
| − | </b><br> | + | </b><br>This tutorial has an educational and informational purpose and doesn’t constitute any type of forecasting, business, trading or investment advice. All content, including code and data, is presented with no guarantee of exactness or completeness. Investment Risk and Uncertainty. All tutorial content and conclusions are based on hypothetical historical analysis and not real trading or investing with the possibility of future outliers not previously observed within these time series. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Investment risk and uncertainty can possibly lead to its total loss for unleveraged products and even larger for leveraged ones. |
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| − | <b> | + | <b>Smoothing 4: Simple exponential smoothing (SES) |
| − | </b><br> | + | </b><br>Galit Shmueli Simple exponential smoothing is a popular data-driven method for forecasting series with no trend and no seasonality. This video supports the textbook Practical Time Series Forecasting. |
| + | http://www.forecastingbook.com http://www.galitshmueli.com | ||
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<youtube>_JDJ-UT41ik</youtube> | <youtube>_JDJ-UT41ik</youtube> | ||
| − | <b> | + | <b>Time Series Analysis - 6.3.1 - Forecasting Using Simple Exponential Smoothing |
| − | </b><br> | + | </b><br>Bob Trenwith Practical Time Series Analysis PLAYLIST: http://tinyurl.com/TimeSeriesPlaylist 6 - Seasonality, SARIMA, Forecasting 3.1 - Forecasting Using Simple Exponential Smoothing |
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<youtube>DUyZl-abnNM</youtube> | <youtube>DUyZl-abnNM</youtube> | ||
| − | <b> | + | <b>Smoothing 5: Holt's exponential smoothing |
| − | </b><br> | + | </b><br>Galit Shmueli Holt's (double) exponential smoothing is a popular data-driven method for forecasting series with a trend but no seasonality. This video supports the textbook Practical Time Series Forecasting. http://www.forecastingbook.com http://www.galitshmueli.com |
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<youtube>lYLCSHk4guc</youtube> | <youtube>lYLCSHk4guc</youtube> | ||
| − | <b> | + | <b>Forecasting Techniques: Trend-Corrected Exponential Smoothing Method (Holt's Method) |
| − | </b><br> | + | </b><br>This video illustrates an application of Trend-corrected exponential smoothing technique. The goal in this video is to walk through the steps in this forecasting technique, compute the error measurements, and how to find the best parameter values to obtain the minimum error. |
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[http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Winter+Exponential+Smoothing+SES+Time+Series+forecasting YouTube search...] | [http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Winter+Exponential+Smoothing+SES+Time+Series+forecasting YouTube search...] | ||
[http://www.google.com/search?q=Winter+Exponential+Smoothing+SES+Time+Series+forecasting+Statistical+machine+learning+ML+artificial+intelligence ...Google search] | [http://www.google.com/search?q=Winter+Exponential+Smoothing+SES+Time+Series+forecasting+Statistical+machine+learning+ML+artificial+intelligence ...Google search] | ||
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| − | <b> | + | <b>Smoothing 6: Winter's exponential smoothing |
| − | </b><br> | + | </b><br>Galit Shmueli Winter's (Holt-Winter's) exponential smoothing is a popular data-driven method for forecasting series with a trend and seasonality. This video supports the textbook Practical Time Series Forecasting. http://www.forecastingbook.com http://www.galitshmueli.com |
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| − | <b> | + | <b>Forecasting in Excel using the Holt-Winter technique |
| − | </b><br> | + | </b><br>scmprofrutgers |
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Revision as of 21:22, 12 September 2020
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Contents
- 1 Time Series Forecasting
- 2 Time Series Forecasting - Statistical
- 2.1 Autoregression (AR)
- 2.2 Moving Average (MA)
- 2.3 Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)
- 2.4 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)
- 2.5 Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average (SARIMA)
- 2.6 Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors (SARIMAX)
- 2.7 Vector Autoregression (VAR)
- 2.8 Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA)
- 2.9 Vector Autoregression Moving-Average (VARMA)
- 2.10 Vector Autoregression Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors (VARMAX)
- 3 Smoothing
- 4 Time Series AutoML
- 5 Time Series Forecasting - Deep Learning
- 6 Demand Forecasting
Time Series Forecasting
- How to Tune LSTM Hyperparameters with Keras for Time Series Forecasting | Matt Dancho
- How (not) to use Machine Learning for time series forecasting: Avoiding the pitfalls | Vegard Flovik KDnuggeets
- How (not) to use Machine Learning for time series forecasting: Avoiding the pitfalls | Vegard Flovik - KDnuggets
- Time Series Prediction - 8 Techniques | Siraj Raval
- Amazon Forecast | AWS
- 7 Ways Time-Series Forecasting Differs from Machine Learning | Roman Josue de las Heras Torres
- Finding Patterns and Outcomes in Time Series Data - Hands-On with Python | ViralML.com
- Applying Statistical Modeling and Machine Learning to Perform Time-Series Forecasting | Tamara Louie
- Stationarity in time series analysis | Shay Palachy - Towards Data Science
- [http://www.youtube.com/
Time Series Forecasting - Statistical
Classical time series forecasting methods may be focused on linear relationships, nevertheless, they are sophisticated and perform well on a wide range of problems, assuming that your data is suitably prepared and the method is well configured. 11 Classical Time Series Forecasting Methods in Python (Cheat Sheet) | Jason Brownlee - Machine Learning Mastery
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Autoregression (AR)
YouTube search... ...Google search
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Moving Average (MA)
YouTube search... ...Google search
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Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)
YouTube search... ...Google search
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Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)
YouTube search... ...Google search
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Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average (SARIMA)
YouTube search... ...Google search
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Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors (SARIMAX)
YouTube search... ...Google search
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Vector Autoregression (VAR)
YouTube search... ...Google search
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Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA)
YouTube search... ...Google search
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Vector Autoregression Moving-Average (VARMA)
YouTube search... ...Google search
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Vector Autoregression Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors (VARMAX)
YouTube search... ...Google search
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Smoothing
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Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES)
YouTube search... ...Google search
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Holt's Exponential Smoothing
YouTube search... ...Google search
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Winter's (Holt-Winter's) Exponential Smoothing (HWES)
YouTube search... ...Google search
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Time Series AutoML
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Time Series Forecasting - Deep Learning
Applying deep learning methods like Multilayer Neural Networks and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Recurrent Neural Network models to time series forecasting problems.| Jason Brownlee - Machine Learning Mastery
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Demand Forecasting
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